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The Only Thing Certain Is Uncertainty

The Only Thing Certain Is Uncertainty

Jodie | 12 Jun 2026 | News | Performance, People, Transformation

Brighter, longer days are here, but uncertainty continues to shape the business landscape

As we move through Spring 2026, intensifying global events, economic pressures and rapid advances in technology are forcing leaders to reassess how they plan, invest and transform. Although headlines focus on political figures and global powers, every organisation, from local SMEs to global enterprises, are navigating the same turbulence.

The tariff upheavals of 2025 acted as a stress test for how businesses respond when volatility accelerates. Companies were forced to make fast, high stakes decisions with incomplete information.

The lesson that emerged was familiar: uncertainty is not an occasional disruption.

But what stood out in 2025 was the clear difference in how organisations responded. Research from McKinsey highlighted that companies which proactively assessed their position, adapted strategies and modelled multiple scenarios were better positioned to maintain performance than those that waited. Insights from the April 2025 roundtable reinforced the point, organisations that acted early and with intent proved more resilient than those adopting a “wait and see” approach.

Yet the real takeaway goes deeper than decisiveness alone, the true differentiator was people! Leaders and teams who were equipped, aligned and supported to navigate uncertainty with confidence.

Are People the Foundation of Navigating Uncertainty?

Whether facing external shocks or delivering transformation, uncertainty is inevitable. If transformation were predictable, straightforward and linear, 70% of them wouldn’t fail. The same capabilities that help organisations deliver complex change are precisely the ones that help them respond effectively to unpredictable external events.

Strong, people centred transformations share several traits:

Clarity of vision– A shared understanding of the change being pursued, and why it matters.
Alignment on what needs to be different– Knowing what must change in behaviours, processes or structures to make the vision reality.
Focus on what can be controlled– Prioritising the areas leaders and teams can influence, even when external factors shift.
Acceptance that knowledge and certainty evolve – Teams understand they will know more at the end than the beginning. Testing, refining and adjusting are essential.
Balanced teams with active sponsorship – Sponsors who scan, remove blockers, and support delivery while staying connected to reality.

This clarity enables more informed decisions, especially when external events require a pivot. For example, a cost efficiency programme that focuses on reducing manufacturing cycle time by 20% remains the right choice even if the benefit of reduced cost is undermined by tariffs increasing production costs. Conversely, a growth programme reliant on shifting customer buying behaviour may require reassessment if external conditions undermine the core assumptions.

You can only judge the impact of uncertainty when you are already clear on the change you are trying to deliver.

Building Confidence Through Adaptation, Not Rigidity

Borrowing from Jim Collins’ “bullets before cannonballs”, organisations that test ideas on a small scale before committing full resources reduce risk by default. They avoid setting plans in concrete and recognise that both people and circumstances evolve.

Crucially, this approach shifts accountability from “delivering the project” to “delivering the outcomes”. It empowers teams to explore multiple pathways to the same goal, reducing paralysis when one route hits a barrier.

If we ask ourselves when the global environment will become stable again, the honest answer is that it may never return to the conditions we once viewed as “normal”. But this doesn’t need to paralyse progress. When was the last time there wasn’t a shock around the corner for businesses?

Therefore, active sponsorship being seen as a human endeavour rather than a governance formality is key. Sponsors and programme leaders who support, challenge and coach one another create the psychological safety necessary to remain resourceful under pressure will accelerate progress.

Organisations that will succeed in the years ahead are those that stay focused on what matters, build clarity around their transformations, around the outcomes they are trying to achieve, and who empower their people and act with intention.

Uncertainty may be constant, but people determine how well an organisation navigates it.

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